To Pay, or Not to Pay
The 49ers’ 2025 offseason is fraught with lingering questions.
Can they plug all the holes on defense in the draft?
Is Jake Brendel really going to start again next year?
Will Brandon Aiyuk look like his old self this season?
Will he be traded?
Are the Yorks retrenching after uncharacteristic spendthrift behavior?
But the biggest question is: how much will Brock Purdy get paid?
Some even question if he should get paid at all.
The opinions on Purdy’s compensation range from paying him $65 million APY to making him play out the last year of his dirt-cheap rookie deal at $5.3 million.
Ever since he burst onto the scene in the middle of the 2022 season, Purdy has been a polarizing player and low-hanging fruit for the NFL commentariat.
People are reluctant to believe their “lying” eyes. Can he really be this good?
Seventh-round quarterbacks are not supposed to be franchise players. Every bad game—or even bad play—is a moment for skeptics to point out his average arm strength and initial draft position as Mr. Irrelevant.
See? The scouts knew what they were talking about.
But even the scouts acknowledged they were wrong about Purdy.
The Athletic spoke with an NFL coach who wrote a scouting report on Purdy, and he conceded that Purdy’s performance as a rookie proved that he should have been drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.
“We undervalued his agility and probably the mental side, and San Francisco is perfect for it because they put a lot of importance on that because of their offense,” the coach said.
Purdy’s first three years in the league are about as good as it gets.
Advanced metrics (EPA/play, CPOE) over that span put him at the top of the league, and his “regular” stats are just as good, particularly his yards per attempt, which is an absurd 8.9.
For those who like quarterback wins as a stat, Purdy is 23-13 as a starter in the regular season, and 4-2 in the playoffs.
The two playoff losses were in the 2022 NFC Championship Game where he got injured on the first drive, and overtime of the Super Bowl the next season.
If Purdy passes the stats test and the wins test, then it seems like a no-brainer to pay him something in between $50 million and $60 million per year.
But the people hesitant to pay Purdy have some persistent qualms.
The Garoppolo Paradox
Perhaps the biggest argument against Purdy is that Jimmy Garoppolo also won games and put up good numbers in Kyle Shanahan’s system, and Garoppolo has proven himself to be a backup in the league.
So how is Purdy any better?
First, I personally think there has been a revisionist history of Garoppolo that suggests he was always mediocre-to-subpar.
I think this is wrong.
When Garoppolo got inserted into the lineup in 2017, he took over a lifeless offense and made them tops in the league over a five-game span*.
YARDS PER GAME
Before Garoppolo: 321.7 (21st in NFL)
After Garoppolo: 409.6 (1st in NFL*)
Total: 349.2 (12th in NFL)
NET PASSING PER GAME
Before Garoppolo: 221.8 (17th in NFL)
After Garoppolo: 297.0 (1st in NFL*)
Total: 245.3 (9th in NFL)
THIRD DOWNS
Before Garoppolo: 34.1 percent (26th in NFL)
After Garoppolo: 50.0 percent (1st in NFL*)
Total: 38.9 percent (16th in NFL)
COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
Before Garoppolo: 56.6 percent (31st in NFL)
After Garoppolo: 67.0 percent (3rd in NFL*)
Total: 59.6 percent (25th in NFL)
SACKS ALLOWED
Before Garoppolo: 35 (tied for 6th most in NFL)
After Garoppolo: 8 (27th most in NFL*)
Total: 43 (tied for 11th most in NFL)
TIME OF POSSESSION
Before Garoppolo: 27:36 (31st in NFL)
After Garoppolo: 32:54 (1st in NFL*)
Total: 28:40 (26th in NFL)
POINTS PER GAME
Before Garoppolo: 17.0 (28th in NFL)
After Garoppolo: 28.8 (2nd in NFL*)
Total: 20.7 (20th in NFL)
Obviously five games is a limited sample, teams didn’t have a full season (or offseason) to prepare for the Garoppolo version of the offense, and not all teams are playing their best football at the end of the year.
That being said, the night-and-day difference explains why the 49ers gave Garoppolo the richest quarterback contract at the time, which seems quaint at $137.5 million over five years.
Why didn’t Garoppolo live up to the contract?
In professional sports—and perhaps in life—you’re either getting better, or you’re getting worse.
I think Garoppolo progressively got worse.
One big factor was his torn ACL.
Garoppolo was never going to be confused with Michael Vick, but his film from New England and early on with San Francisco showed a quarterback with elusiveness that just wasn’t there after the 2018 injury.
Garoppolo got injured again in 2020, further reducing his mobility.
Another factor in Garoppolo’s regression might be unscientific, but I think he got “the yips” after the Super Bowl.
His timing seemed off.
In 2019, he routinely threw outcuts on time and hit receivers in stride.
In the first Los Angeles Rams game that season, he converted several third downs with perfectly-timed out routes.
Against the Arizona Cardinals, color commentator Troy Aikman was amazed at how early he threw an out route to Emmanuel Sanders.
But in the 2020 season opener after the Super Bowl collapse, he was noticeably late on an outcut to Trent Taylor on 4th down, and late to Kendrick Bourne in the back of the end zone on what would have been the game-winning touchdown.
These are a handful of examples (there are many others), but in my opinion, he was not the same confident thrower after missing Sanders with the Super Bowl on the line.
Also, Garoppolo was legendary for his disappearing acts during the offseason.
Nobody would characterize him as a student of the game.
When Purdy stepped in during the 2022 season, the offense immediately looked better than with Garoppolo.
During the 10 games that Garoppolo finished, the 49ers averaged 23.9 points per game.
During the 8 games that Purdy finished, the team averaged 32.6 points per game.
Garoppolo was a good player for the 49ers, but Purdy has shown to be a cut above.
“The Avengers”
Another argument from Purdy skeptics is that he’s surrounded with elite talent, so he doesn’t have to do much.
See? He wasn’t that good without “The Avengers” in 2024.
During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Purdy had a strong supporting cast, but he did what quarterbacks are supposed to do under those conditions, which is score a lot of points and win a lot of games.
In Purdy's first two seasons, his passer rating was 107.3 and 113.0, respectively.
But in 2024, his passer rating was only 96.1, and he finished 7th in ESPN’s QBR metric.
Nevertheless, Purdy went 6-9 as the starter.
First, the team was decimated by injuries.
For significant stretches of the season, Purdy was without his:
First-string tailback (Christian McCaffrey)
Second-string tailback (Elijah Mitchell)
Third-string tailback (Jordan Mason)
Hall of Fame left tackle (Trent Williams)
Top wide receiver (Brandon Aiyuk)
Virtually every quarterback in the league would struggle without those pieces.
Deebo Samuel also had a horrific year where he led the team in drops, missed time with pneumonia, and was reportedly out of shape.
And Ricky Pearsall, the team’s 1st-round pick at receiver, missed a lot of the offseason with a shoulder injury, then got shot in the chest.
Despite all of the chaos, the 49ers were still 4th in the NFL in total offense, and 3rd in yards per play.
Purdy did not have any trouble moving the ball.
However, the team had significant red zone struggles, particularly running the football.
The 49ers were also third in field goal attempts, but 27th in field goal percentage.
So they left a lot of points on the field thanks to missed kicks.
Defensively, the front four was a shell of its former self, and Nick Sorensen bombed as defensive coordinator.
The defense finished 29th in points allowed, and blew three late leads with chances to ice the game.
Purdy was not blameless in the 2024 debacle.
He had a few chances to win games late, but faltered for one reason or another.
All that said, the 2024 season was not the “gotcha” data point that many skeptics make it out to be.
Good, Not Great
Everyone but the most ardent skeptics would acknowledge that Purdy is a good NFL quarterback.
But he’s not on the elite tier, therefore he shouldn’t get paid near the top of the quarterback market.
How can you pay him $55 million? I’d move on.
The easy answer is that the quarterback market is what it is.
The going rate for a good quarterback has been inflated by questionable contracts, and 49ers fans’ sensibilities are offended by overpaying for a quarterback who’s not elite.
However, digging deeper reveals just how perilous the quarterback carousel can be.
Analyzing every single first-round quarterback since 2000 reveals a cornucopia of busts, mediocrity, and a handful of unquestioned hits.
Below are the 75 quarterbacks in that span, and where they were selected in the first round.
I’ll let readers be the judge of how many are worth top dollar in today’s market.
2000
Chad Pennington (18)
2001
Michael Vick (1)
2002
David Carr (1)
Joey Harrington (3)
Patrick Ramsey (32)
2003
Carson Palmer (1)
Byron Leftwich (7)
Kyle Boller (19)
Rex Grossman (22)
2004
Eli Manning (1)
Philip Rivers (4)
Ben Roethlisberger (11)
J.P. Losman (22)
2005
Alex Smith (1)
Aaron Rodgers (24)
Jason Campbell (25)
2006
Vince Young (3)
Matt Leinart (10)
Jay Cutler (11)
2007
JaMarcus Russell (1)
Brady Quinn (22)
2008
Matt Ryan (3)
Joe Flacco (18)
2009
Matthew Stafford (1)
Mark Sanchez (5)
Josh Freeman (17)
2010
Sam Bradford (1)
Tim Tebow (25)
2011
Cam Newton (1)
Jake Locker (8)
Blaine Gabbert (10)
Christian Ponder (12)
2012
Andrew Luck (1)
Robert Griffin III (2)
Ryan Tannehill (8)
Brandon Weeden (22)
2013
E.J. Manuel (16)
2014
Blake Bortles (3)
Johnny Manziel (22)
Teddy Bridgewater (32)
2015
Jameis Winston (1)
Marcus Mariota (2)
2016
Jared Goff (1)
Carson Wentz (2)
Paxton Lynch (26)
2017
Mitchell Trubisky (2)
Patrick Mahomes (10)
Deshaun Watson (12)
2018
Baker Mayfield (1)
Sam Darnold (3)
Josh Allen (7)
Josh Rosen (10)
Lamar Jackson (32)
2019
Kyler Murray (1)
Daniel Jones (6)
Dwayne Haskins (15)
2020
Joe Burrow (1)
Tua Tagovailoa (5)
Justin Herbert (6)
Jordan Love (26)
2021
Trevor Lawrence (1)
Zach Wilson (2)
Trey Lance (3)
Justin Fields (11)
Mac Jones (15)
2022
Kenny Pickett (20)
2023
Bryce Young (1)
C.J. Stroud (2)
Anthony Richardson (4)
2024
Caleb Williams (1)
Jayden Daniels (2)
Drake Maye (3)
Michael Penix, Jr. (8)
J.J. McCarthy (10)
Bo Nix (12)
Even among the hits, how many were elite and “deserving” of top dollar?
People should keep that list in mind when discussing vague notions of replacing Purdy in the draft.
Fans think they’re getting Mahomes, but they’re much more likely to end up with J.P. Losman.
What about the quarterbacks not taken in the first round?
The hit rate obviously drops significantly.
Over the 25-year span from 2000 to 2024, I counted 215 quarterbacks drafted after the first round.
As far as I could tell, below are the only quarterbacks drafted after round one that led teams to the playoffs as the primary starter.
2000
Tom Brady (199)
Marc Bulger (168)
2001
Drew Brees (32)
2003
Tony Romo (Undrafted)
2004
Matt Schaub (90)
2005
Matt Cassel (230)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (250)
2011
Andy Dalton (35)
Colin Kaepernick (36)
2012
Russell Wilson (75)
Nick Foles (88)
Kirk Cousins (102)
Case Keenum (Undrafted)
2013
Geno Smith (39)
2014
Derek Carr (36)
Jimmy Garoppolo (62)
2016
Dak Prescott (135)
2020
Jalen Hurts (53)
2022
Brock Purdy (262)
That’s an 8.8% hit rate after the first round.
Quarterback is a massive crapshoot.
It’s almost impossible to predict who’s going to be good, let alone elite.
Even if there is an elite quarterback in the draft, there’s no guarantee that the team would be in position to draft him.
Every team wants an elite quarterback, but there just aren’t many of them.
The most prudent move is to pay Purdy, a good quarterback, and be consistently good with the chance of catching fire in the playoffs and winning it all.
The alternative is to reset at quarterback, and chances are the replacement would be worse.
Teams in the NFL are perennially bad because they can’t even find a good quarterback.
The 49ers have one.
In the words of Teddy KGB from the film Rounders: “Pay that man his money.”